The man who proved by mathematics that World War II couldn’t happen
Back in 1938, Lewis F. Richardson worked out a mathematical system for predicting war. He presented his findings at a meeting of the British Association for the Advancement of Science. His conclusion: no chance of war in Europe!
The New York Times reported his findings on Aug 23, 1938:
No Sign of War Seen
Before the section on psychology, Lewis F. Richardson of Paisley arrived at the encouraging conclusion that there is no sign of war — at least no mathematical sign. For the professor reduced to beautiful differential equations general tendencies common to all nations — resentment of defiance, the suspicion that defense is concealed aggression, response to imports by exports, restraint on armaments by the difficulty of paying for them, and, last, grievances and their irrationality. The psychologists were bewildered and amused.
Mathematically, Professor Richardson treated love and hate as if they were forces that could be designated by the usual X and Y. The forces make possible two opposite kinds of drifting, one leading to suspicion, the other leading from cooperation to united organization.
The balance of power, Professor Richardson holds, is best maintained by countries of different sizes rather than by a few countries of the same size. When he concluded from his mathematical analysis that there was no chance of war at present he remarked:
"I never would have accepted this unless I proved it to myself by mathematics."
His hearers left with the feeling that Europe's feverish preparation for war is only a declaration of peace to the knife.
It's worth noting that Richardson wasn't just some random crackpot. As wikipedia notes, he's the guy who came up with the idea of weather forecasting by solution of differential equations, which is the method used today.
The New York Times reported his findings on Aug 23, 1938:
Before the section on psychology, Lewis F. Richardson of Paisley arrived at the encouraging conclusion that there is no sign of war — at least no mathematical sign. For the professor reduced to beautiful differential equations general tendencies common to all nations — resentment of defiance, the suspicion that defense is concealed aggression, response to imports by exports, restraint on armaments by the difficulty of paying for them, and, last, grievances and their irrationality. The psychologists were bewildered and amused.
Mathematically, Professor Richardson treated love and hate as if they were forces that could be designated by the usual X and Y. The forces make possible two opposite kinds of drifting, one leading to suspicion, the other leading from cooperation to united organization.
The balance of power, Professor Richardson holds, is best maintained by countries of different sizes rather than by a few countries of the same size. When he concluded from his mathematical analysis that there was no chance of war at present he remarked:
"I never would have accepted this unless I proved it to myself by mathematics."
His hearers left with the feeling that Europe's feverish preparation for war is only a declaration of peace to the knife.
It's worth noting that Richardson wasn't just some random crackpot. As wikipedia notes, he's the guy who came up with the idea of weather forecasting by solution of differential equations, which is the method used today.
Comments
If the weatherpeople (oops! Almost typed "weathermen".) are still using 80yo formula that explains their track record.
Posted by Expat47 in Athens, Greece on 10/10/13 at 10:43 AM
Where's Hari Seldon when you need him? Oh, he hasn't been born yet.
Posted by KDP on 10/10/13 at 12:05 PM
D.R. Steel isn't around yet either.
Posted by Expat47 in Athens, Greece on 10/10/13 at 12:10 PM
You don´t need a weatherman to know what way the wind blows
Posted by F.U.D. on 10/10/13 at 02:03 PM
Same guy who's relative predicted the US gov't would never shut down.
Posted by BrokeDad in Midwest US on 10/10/13 at 03:54 PM
Yeah, that weather thing is just about as accurate as the war prediction one was.
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 10/10/13 at 06:53 PM
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Category: Science | 1930s