What’s The Chances?

A freak coincidence, that's what a spokesperson for the Bulgarian national lottery is calling it. It being the drawing of the same 6 numbers, in different order, on September 6th and again on the 10th. The Sports Minister, Svilen Neikov called for an investigation. The chairman of the lottery commission, Konstantin Simeonov, states that the resulting investigation found no wrong doing. The Bulgarian lottery has been drawn for 52 years this being the first time for repeat numbers. The numbers are picked by machine on live television. A mathematician was quoted as saying that the chance of the same 6 numbers being picked on consecutive drawings is more than 1 in 4 million, but not impossible. No one won the first time, but 18 people had the winning numbers on the second drawing. Each received the equivalent of $7,700. At least 18 people expected the same numbers to come up, and lucky them, they were right.
     Posted By: patty - Fri Sep 18, 2009

if that happened here people would never believe it wasn't a set up. who knows, it is possible, not probable, but possible. i thought it was strange that 18 people picked the same numbers that had come up last drawing too.
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 09/18/09 at 04:20 PM
there was a mathematician(not a good one obviously) quoted in the article with the numbers i gave. but i have heard that before, that each time you toss a coin it is a 50/50 chance for the idividual toss and is not affected by the number or results of any previous tosses. by chaos theory the toss can be affected by any number of small anomolies most of which aren't repeated. like if the coin has a worn spot that changes it's balance(non changing*) or if something on your fingers makes a stick or slick spot on the coin (changing) strong breeze (ch) force of the toss (ch)ect.
*when i say non changing that's assuming the tosses are over a reasonably short period with the same coin. of course the coin can suffer further wear over longer periods. just in case someone wants to get technical on me.(you know who you are and you'll probably get me on something here anyway as you are both way smarter. 😊 )
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 09/18/09 at 05:35 PM
So, to analyze what DF just said: lightning can strike twice in the same place.

(I'm auditioning for a gig as a new anchor and need to be able to explain to the, obviously stupid audience, what it was that they just heard.)
Posted by Expat47 in Athens, Greece on 09/18/09 at 11:44 PM
are you going to be one of those guys that comes on after the president speaks and repeats everything he just said 2 or 3 times like they had an original thought? if so you won't last long, you're too smart for that and it would get old quick. 😉
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 09/18/09 at 11:51 PM
i've heard that before smoke. i think the answer is to change your choice to the other door, but i can't remember the logic behind it right now. guess i'll have to google it. 😊
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 09/19/09 at 08:29 AM
when you pick a door out of 3 you have a 1/3 chance of winning. when you are shown the goat behind one of the remaining doors a the 2/3 probability for the 2 doors then remains with the other door. meaning that by changing your choice you have a 2/3 chance of winning. thus you always change doors. :cheese:
Posted by Patty in Ohio, USA on 09/19/09 at 08:40 AM
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